Space & Astronomy

Major update as odds revised on possible asteroid impact in 2032

By T.K. Randall
February 25, 2025 ·  21 comments

An artist's impression of the asteroid. Image Credit: NASA Known simply as Asteroid 2024 YR4, this fast-approaching space rock generated a great deal of debate when it was revealed earlier this month that it had a 1-in-83 chance of hitting Earth in 2032.

It was discovered last Christmas by Arizona's Catalina Sky Survey and was described as having "one of the highest probabilities of an impact from a significantly sized rock ever."

The potential "risk corridor" for a collision placed the impact site in a region of the world stretching from South America to Central Africa and also into India.

As the days went by, the odds seemed to keep increasing - reaching as high as 1-in-32 at one point.Now, though, following a new analysis of the asteroid's trajectory by the European Space Agency (ESA) Planetary Defence Office, it has been determined that the odds of a collision with the Earth are now a mere 0.001%.

In other words, the likelihood that it will strike the Earth is practically negligible.

"Asteroid 2024 YR4 has now fallen from Level 3 to Level 0 on the Torino Impact Hazard Scale and no longer requires significant attention," ESA wrote.

"The asteroid is no longer at the top of ESA's risk list, and the International Asteroid Warning Network has concluded its related activities."

At least that's one less thing we need to be worrying about.

Source: ESA | Comments (21)

Tags: Asteroid